Between the Soviet breakup and the subsequent collapse of the Russian healthcare system, the Russian population is one of the fastest aging and most diseased in the world. Looking at their population bell curve, by 2050 the Russian population will have shrunk by one-quarter, with ethnic Russians no longer the majority. For a country where oppression of minorities is the cultural equivalent of baseball, this will prove a swampy problem.
With that in mind, Russia is basically pulling a Hail Mary to secure it’s place, once more, in the western sphere of influence before it’s own problems overwhelm it. Then you have the European finance, and now, banking crisis and rise of populist movements. My money is on a Russian-European War for the kick-off. I think, however, America is now so heavily focused on it’s own issues we’ll be “out to lunch” for the foreseeable future. Trump seems more inclined towards that of an isolationist standpoint (much how were were at the kick off of WWII). So the question is, if this become the next catalyst for a world war or some “extinction type event” as you proposed in your other piece, what will be the defining moments that other countries enter? Another Pearl Harbor moment? 9/11? Where does the Middle East and the civil wars in Syria and Libya factor into this? Loved what you wrote, so just curious to hear your further thoughts on this or if you agree/disagree!